Can Trump hold on to his double-digit lead? Every poll we've seen in the past few days -- and there have been plenty of them! -- shows Donald Trump leading the GOP field here by double digits, including some by 20-plus points. Of course, every poll in Iowa had Trump ahead in the Hawkeye State, and we saw how that turned out. But there are important differences that New Hampshire has from Iowa: It's a primary, not a caucus; independents, not evangelicals, play a significant role; and there is no clear/obvious threat (like Ted Cruz was in Iowa).
What kind of impact does Rubio's rough debate performance have in New Hampshire? We remember when many of us declared Trump the winner for skipping the debate before the Iowa caucuses, so we caution how Marco Rubio's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad debate will play out. But at the very least, it seems to have blunted any momentum he had going into Tuesday. And just look at the latest 7News Boston/UMass tracking poll: Trump 34%, Rubio 13%, Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 10%, and Chris Christie 5%. There's a traffic jam for second place, especially on the establishment side. Add up the Rubio/Bush/Kasich/Christie percentages, and you get 38% -- more than Trump's percentage.
Will the GOP field winnow after New Hampshire? (Don't bet on it after the debate):No matter who finishes second/third/fourth/fifth in New Hampshire, don't expect anyone to drop out after New Hampshire, especially after smelling blood versus Rubio. That's maybe the biggest consequence of Rubio's debate performance. And it complicates his path to victory in South Carolina, because that same traffic-jam dynamic will continue in the Palmetto State if everyone stays in the race.
Just how far ahead is Sanders in New Hampshire? Unlike the GOP race, the Democratic race in New Hampshire has polling that seems all over the place. The 7News/UMass poll shows Bernie Sanders ahead of Hillary Clinton by 16 points, 56%-40%. But the Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University survey has Sanders' lead at seven points, 51%-44%.
Can Clinton bring back home women and registered Democrats? If so, she has a more than realistic chance of making New Hampshire a single-digit race. Indeed, in last week's NBC/WSJ/Marist poll that showed Sanders ahead by 20 points, the Vermont senator was leading Clinton among women (50%-46%) and Democrats (51%-46%). So that helps explain the Madeleine Albright comment from the weekend, as well as Bill Clinton's verbal assault on Sanders yesterday.
