Bitcoin Price Advance Still Unconfirmed

Bitcoin price pushed higher in a small advancing wave today, Although the price wave resembles the initial stages of advance, there is not yet high confidence that the push higher will continue.

The rounded price wave that formed during the past two days (blue rectangle) had dipped lower and the market advanced price from the top of the support zone (at $650, Bitstamp), as illustrated in yesterday’s analysis post.

Today’s upside wave has been conflicted – lots of buying and selling (in low volume) – and with no meaningful progress. What is interesting about the current price wave is that it formed a rounded wave (highlighted with a blue rectangle) that resembles the “bump” we witness before a surging upside wave. Yet, the surge has not materialized.

Our expectation and trade plan remains unchanged:

Below the 1-hour 200MA there is a potential bounce level at $640, at which a base wave may complete and then advance into a larger rally. Of course, losing that $640 level could be seen as a bearish signal and then the low $600s and a potentially larger decline may develop.

For now, we expect consolidation to continue unfolding between $640 and $680. Ongoing MACD compression signifies a pending breakout, but we wait to see the signals form across timeframes and for price to then establish either above $680 or below $600 before we commit to a position.