You have to pay close attention to one thing on the chart if you trade naked: price. Price is king. Price will tell you all you need to know. The wonderful thing that all markets have is this: a history. The market will tell you where the sweet spot is on the chart. These sweet spots will be the foundation for everything you do as a naked trader. A sweet spot on the chart is a support and resistance zone. You may be familiar with the concept of support and resistance, however, support and resistance zones are different from what many traders characterize as support and resistance. I will call these support and resistance zones by one word— zones. The eight important characteristics of zones are as follows: 1. Zones are an area, not a price point. 2. Zones are like fine wine; they get better with age. 3. Zones are spots on the chart where price reverses, repeatedly. 4. Zones may be extreme highs or lows on the chart. 5. Zones are where naked traders find trading opportunities. 6. Support and resistance zones rarely need to be modified. 7. Line charts help naked traders find zones. 8. Zones are often seen by many traders. 39 P1: OTA JWBT642-c04 JWBT642-Nekritin January 11, 2012 21:20 Printer: Courier Westford 40 NAKED FOREX You may want to take a closer look at each of these eight characteristics. It is incredibly important that you understand how to draw zones, why you should draw zones on your charts, and understand when these zones become critical for your trading. ZONES ARE BIG FAT BEER BELLIES A zone is simply a big fat beer belly. Many traders have misconceptions concerning zones. Traders may be familiar with the concept of support and resistance but unfortunately, many misapply this concept to technical trading. The naked trader understands that zones are an area on the chart. This is a very distinct concept to a support and resistance line. A support and resistance line indicates a specific price on the chart, but zones are something different. Zones are not a specific price. These zones are, instead, an area, a range, or, as I prefer, a beer belly. Let me explain. I prefer to think of these zones on the chart as if they were beer bellies. Before you disregard this idea, consider what a beer belly is: A beer belly is somewhat firm, maybe somewhat repulsive, and has some predictable characteristics. My friend Jason has a beer belly. He is quite proud of it; he tells me it is quite expensive, as he has paid good money for the wine and beer that have enabled him to grow this belly. If I were to push into Jason’s beer belly with my fist (I would never push into a beer belly without permission, and I suggest you, too, first obtain permission before pushing any beer bellies), eventually I would find resistance. Even if at first I did not find resistance, eventually there would be a point at which the squishy beer belly would stop me from pushing further. This is a critical characteristic, for I know that I may be able to push a little bit into the beer belly, but eventually the beer belly will offer some resistance. Perhaps you may also decide to push into Jason’s beer belly with your fist. You may have a different experience. Perhaps, when you start to push into Jason’s beer belly, you become somewhat unsettled and decide to pull back after only slightly brushing the hair covering his beer belly. This is completely reasonable, and I am sure that many others will have the same reaction. However, the important thing to note here is that you and I are pushing into the same beer belly, Jason’s beer belly, but we find resistance at different spots on the beer belly. This is a significant feature of zones. Zones are just like beer bellies. Zones are spots on the chart where price has pushed and probed, and then reversed. Naked traders love beer bellies. They love these zones. Naked traders wait for price to reach these zones before initiating a trade. The zone is the sweet spot on the chart for the naked trader. It is absolutely P1: OTA JWBT642-c04 JWBT642-Nekritin January 11, 2012 21:20 Printer: Courier Westford Identifying Support and Resistance Zones 41 critical that the naked trader identifies the zones on the chart. These zones are the foundation of naked trading. OLD ZONES, NEW ZONES The age of zones, and the importance of the age of a zone, is a hotly debated topic among traders. Some traders believe that only those zones that have been established recently are important, and other traders believe that zones that were established long ago are just as important as the newly minted zones. I believe that zones are recycled. If you take a look at any chart for any currency, you will find historical price levels. What you will notice is that price has a tendency to reverse at the same levels repeatedly. This is a distinguishing trait of zones, and you may use this characteristic to define and discover zones on your currency charts. Hot Pizza and Zones When I was a young child, at about six, I used to watch my mother in the kitchen. It was fun. In fact, some of my very first memories are of my mother singing to me in the kitchen. One day, while in the kitchen, I had a terrible accident. On this day my mother was baking pizza, and it smelled delicious. In fact, you may find it hard to believe, but to this day I still love pizza. My mother was busy chopping up the ingredients for the pizza, making the sauce, because she had several pizzas to make. I wandered over to the first pizza. It was still on a hot pan because it had only just been removed from the oven. Now, my mother had warned me to be wary of the hot pizza pan. I had either forgotten or disregarded her warning, and I decided to grab the pizza pan because the pizza smelled so good. As you may imagine, I completely burned my hand. I still remember it being extremely painful and still have the scars. I learned a lesson that day. I still love pizza, but I am wary of hot pans. It was a valuable lesson I learned, and is something that I think about every time I look at a currency pair on the chart, I think about that pizza day. Every time I see a chart approaching a zone, I consider that the market may remember the last time it was burnt at that price level, at that zone. Do Zones = Market Scars? HOW TO FIND ZONES Zones are those spots on the chart where price has repeatedly reversed. However, it may be difficult at first for you to find these zones on the chart. There are several sneaky shortcuts that you can use to help develop an eye for finding zones. Some zones are extremely obvious and easy to find. Other zones are a little bit trickier and may be difficult for you to identify if you have not had experience finding zones on the chart. Please keep in mind these three shortcuts when you are drawing your zones on the chart. 1. Start with a higher timeframe chart. 2. Use a line chart to find the zones on the chart. 3. Ignore minor zones. Use a Higher Timeframe Chart Question: When you meet someone new, how do you decide what they are like? You learn their history, you ask people about them, you try and decipher what they have done in the past, in the hopes of understanding them better. Why do you do this? The implicit assumption is that they will do the same things they have done in the past in the future. Markets are no different. When the market is on a runaway uptrend, traders look to the older charts to see where the critical zones are on the chart. This is also where we see history repeat itself, over and over and over again. This shortcut for finding zones on the chart will work regardless of the timeframe you are trading. Simply move up one timeframe. This is a very powerful method for finding the most important zones on the chart. Examining the higher timeframe chart will enable you to identify zones that will be the most critical areas on the chart for the timeframe you choose to trade. A few touches on the higher timeframe chart will translate into many touches on the lower timeframe chart. This technique will work on any timeframe chart. Take a look at Figure 4.7, the GBP/USD one-hour chart. This pair has made an extreme low at the 1.6291 level. This touch at 1.6291 suggests the market has made a significant low, and this level may become important later. You may recall that extreme touches (lows or highs) are also critical zones. Although most zones will have touches from above and below (support and resistance touches), touches at extreme levels are also very critical, such as the extreme low in Figure 4.7. Later, the market will often come back to these extreme levels. A month later, the GBP/USD four-hour chart (Figure 4.8) suggests two very interesting conclusions. First, the market has indeed found support and resistance on the 1.6291 level; the market has a memory. Second, the four-hour chart shows a very clear perspective for this market. Moving up to a higher timeframe is an excellent way to gain perspective. Only the most important zones will become evident on a highertimeframe chart. If you are using Meta TraderTM for your charts, you will have the following time frames available: one minute, five minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, one hour, four hours, daily, weekly, and monthly. Thus, if you are trading the one-hour chart, a move up to the four-hour chart will help to identify the critical zones. The GBP/USD zone at 1.6291 is clearly a critical zone, as the market touches this zone more than six times over the course of one month (Figure 4.8). This brings up an important point about zones. The importance of a zone is directly related to the number of touches on that zone. So, for instance, if a daily chart shows a zone with five touches over the past year, this would indicate a very critical zone on that particular chart