Three ways Trump’s nuclear strategy misunderstands Iran
Salon: News
Salon: News
2 hours ago

Iranians would be even more firmly opposed to these policy changes if they got nothing new in return. Thus, threatening to reimpose nuclear sanctions is counterproductive if the objective is to get more from Iran.

#3: Killing the deal to provoke regime change A third interpretation suggests that Trump does not really want to prolong, or to improve, the nuclear deal. Instead, he wants to end it, preferably without being blamed for the deal’s demise, and help the people of Iran get a government that is peace-loving and democratic. If so, he would be following some version of a strategy proposed by John Bolton, a leading neoconservative from the George W. Bush administration.

Trump’s speech denounced Iran’s government as a fanatical dictatorship that violently suppresses its own people, supports terrorism and causes conflict throughout the Middle East. He also alleged that this “rogue regime” had been on the verge of total collapse before the nuclear deal lifted sanctions and provided a huge financial boost.

From this perspective, the main effect of the nuclear deal has been to prolong the power of Iran’s supreme leader and his “corrupt personal terror force and militia.” Trump’s pledge to terminate the nuclear deal if Congress and U.S. allies cannot gain Iranian acquiescence to unacceptable demands would demonstrate “total solidarity with the Iranian regime’s longest-suffering vicitims: its own people.”

Our surveys show that Trump misunderstands what the Iranian people want. The vast majority list economic problems, particularly unemployment, as their greatest concern, not political issues, like corruption or human rights. Pre-election data showed that younger Iranians preferred Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Tehran’s conservative mayor who eventually dropped out of the race, to Rouhani, who is more moderate politically but has less impressive economic achievements.