Will AR Glasses Ever Really Take Off?
Three very exciting technologies currently have much of the tech world buzzing and eager to invest: virtual, augmented, and mixed reality.
OpinionsVR hit the scene with the Oculus Rift, prompting a $2 billion acquisition from Facebook. Then Microsoft embraced AR with its HoloLens, and now several companies are trying to bridge the gap between VR and AR with a combination of the two, or mixed reality.
Most people first experienced AR via Pokemon Go, a mobile game that merged virtual objects with real-world action. Since then, major firms have introduced AR-focused developer kits, from Apple's ARKit to Google's ARCore.
But in both cases, these AR apps are delivered through a smartphone or tablet. The big question in Silicon Valley these days is whether AR will ever gain a broad audience if it is only used on a smartphone. Are AR glasses required to really kickstart adoption?
At the recent Wall Street Journal Conference, John Hanke, chief executive of Niantic Inc., predicted that it would take "probably in the order of five years" before the technology is mainstream. Augmented reality technology debuted on the smartphone, Hanke said, "because you build it for the platform that exists." AR will reach "full fruition when we get to the glasses," he argued, where the potential for AR "is immense because it can be woven into your daily life."
In my 35 years in Silicon Valley, I have learned that when pioneers of a technology weigh in on a subject they are involved with, it is best to listen to what they say. Hanke is clearly a pioneer in AR and since millions of people have played Pokemon Go, he has the kind of knowledge and experience to predict where AR is headed. As the Journal notes, Hanke created Pokemon Go for the platform that was already there, in this case the smartphone. But he clearly does not believe AR or mixed reality will reach its real potential without some type of AR or mixed reality glasses or goggles.
On the other hand, Apple's Tim Cook has argued that AR is a game changer for the iPhone and has committed to working with developers on innovative AR apps via ARKit for iOS. Google seems to be equally excited about AR on Android smartphones.
The good news is that AR on a smartphone or tablet will be an important step in getting people familiar with the concept of AR and mixed reality, and I believe it will play a big role in making AR glasses or goggles more acceptable once they do hit the market.
Hit the market again, anyway; Google already tried with Google Glass, but a high price tag, limited feature set, and privacy concerns doomed the awkward high-tech specs. Starting people off on smartphones and tablets, though, will get the ball rolling as devs fine-tune the mixed reality experience. Four or five years down the line, glasses become the preferred way to work with and interact with these apps.
For their part, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and many others are hard at work on such hardware; multiple patents have been filed on glasses already. I am excited about AR on smartphones, but agree wholeheartedly with Niantic's Hanke that it will take some type of AR glasses or goggles to really fulfill the promise of AR and mixed reality for the mass market. In the meantime, we can look forward to some stunning AR apps for our smartphones and tablets.
