When the Fed makes a long pause in the monetary normalizing, and other leading central banks hint at monetary easing, the USD index is going up. When both the Fed and the ECB signal lowering interest rates, investors wonder which bank has a wider range of tools. Obviously, it is not the ECB whose interest rates are already negative, and the QE efficiency is arguable. The Fed may safely resort to a few acts of monetary expansion; the derivatives market bets on 94% and 66% chances of the federal funds rate.
