Masahiro Tanaka has reportedly agreed to a record-setting deal with the New York Yankees, and the expectation will be, in some circles, that the winter freeze will finally end and the phones will start to ring for Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and others.
But what if this isn't the case? What if the bidding on Tanaka is almost completely isolated from the rest of the pitching market, as some team officials strongly suspect?
"I'm not in the camp that thinks [Tanaka] is related to the others," said one evaluator. Rather, he said, what will generally happen is that it will come out that "most of these guys were asking for too many years, and too much money."
The Los Angeles Dodgers, who wanted Tanaka, have a spot to fill in their rotation, but they might well pass on Garza, Santana and Jimenez. The Chicago Cubs were interested in Tanaka because of how he would have fit into their long-term plan, and this is not necessarily the case with Santana and Jimenez.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Angels demonstrated interest in Garza earlier this winter, and he is not linked to draft-pick compensation. But Jimenez and Santana are tied to draft-pick compensation, and it could be that the long, cold offseason will continue for them even now that Tanaka has agreed to a deal.
Santana and Jimenez have the option of returning to their former teams, the Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Indians, respectively, which mitigates the draft-pick complication somewhat (although the Indians and Royals may want any deal with the pitchers to reflect the sacrifice of the draft pick they would otherwise receive if the players signed elsewhere).
Santana and Jimenez could sign a one-year deal and hope to hit the market next fall -- but that's not necessarily as promising as it might seem.
In the past, Scott Boras and other agents extracted assurance for their clients that the teams would not offer arbitration to free agents, and therefore not be tied to draft-pick compensation. But under the current collective bargaining agreement, teams and players are expressly forbidden from this sort of arrangement, under Article XX.B:
(c) A Club and Player (or their designated representatives) shall not enter into any agreement, understanding or contract, or make any representation, promise or commitment, whether implied or explicit, either orally or in writing, that the Club will not make a Qualifying Offer to a Player, or that a Player will not accept a Qualifying Offer if one is tendered to him. Any Club or Club employee that violates this provision will be subject to discipline by the Commissioner, including the potential forfeiture of draft selections.
If Jimenez or Santana re-signed with their former team for 2014, the pitcher could be right back in the same circumstances next fall. If Santana signs a one-year deal with the Royals, for example, and has a strong 2014, K.C. could extend another qualifying offer. (The same would be true, of course, for Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz, unsigned position players who also are tied to draft-pick compensation.)
The availability of Tanaka has bought some time for the agents of Santana and Jimenez. They have waited, presumably, to see if a better negotiating landscape evolves, as it did for Prince Fielder two winters ago after Victor Martinez was hurt. But now that Tanaka has a deal, the dearth of options available to the pitchers may be fully exposed.
Four "by the ways"
1. The Yankees' pursuit of Tanaka may not pay off the way it did with CC Sabathia, writes Joel Sherman.
2. A number of rival executives are convinced Jimenez will need to make his best possible deal with the Indians.
3. Some executives assume that the Blue Jays will land Jimenez or Santana -- but that is assuming that Toronto has the available money to sign either. There are a number of starters available on the next tier, including Bronson Arroyo and Paul Maholm. Candidates are lining up to talk to the Rangers about their rotation opening.
4. The Red Sox, waiting patiently to see if Drew comes back to be a super utility player who plays regularly while moving around the infield from day to day, are happy with their roster.
Around the league
• On the union conference call Jan. 13, initially reported Tuesday, the players were told specifically that Alex Rodriguez is not suing union head Tony Clark, per se; he's not suing union counsel David Prouty. Rather, the players were told, Alex Rodriguez "is suing you" -- the players. And this has fueled the players' anger.
There are a lot of reasons why I believe A-Rod won't appear again in another MLB game, and you can throw this situation on top of that pile.
Rodriguez is alone on an island linked to the sport by various bridges, and he has torched just about all of them. He is Public Enemy No. 1 to Major League Baseball, as we witnessed with its choice to participate in the "60 Minutes" piece. His relationship with the Yankees -- which was uneasy but workable until last summer -- is nothing but embers now.
If the Yankees work to sever their ties with Rodriguez either by suing him for violating the terms of his contract -- not necessarily for PEDs, but for various acts such as not appearing for a minor-league rehabilitation assignment -- or by cutting him and eating the last dollars owed on his deal, it's possible that some other team might consider signing him.
But now that the anger of other players is directed at Rodriguez as well, their collective voice may be a factor in whether he could find another job. Teams regularly canvass their veterans for feedback on potential signees, sometimes steering away based what they hear from their own trusted players, and the possibility of signing Rodriguez may well be met with heavy internal resistance.
If he could still be a transcendent player, a great player, the personal rancor might be overlooked for the sake of winning. But at best, Rodriguez might be a slightly above-average 39-year-old third baseman when he finishes serving his suspension, with the potential of his production outweighed by the specter of the clubhouse anger and distraction he would engender.
Rodriguez's career is generally understood to be over, writes Zach Buchanan.
Tommy Lasorda is not a fan of A-Rod these days.
• Frank Wren and Fredi Gonzalez are under contract for 2014, but don't have extensions yet. Ron Washington also is entering the last year of his deal.
The trend within the industry is in the direction of treating managers and front-office staff contracts like those for most players are treated -- just play it out. Increasingly, owners and high-ranking executives like to maintain as much flexibility as possible, because no matter how much favor a manager or GM might enjoy today, circumstances can change quickly. It's hard to imagine, for example, that the restless Arte Moreno wouldn't have made changes with his team if not constricted by the long-term deal he has with Mike Scioscia. (The Angels' manager is guaranteed $6 million per year from 2016 through 2018, though he can opt out of his deal after the 2015 season.)
Washington may have to make the playoffs in order to keep his job, writes Gerry Fraley.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Jim Crane is going to talk to Nolan Ryan about a job, as Jesus Ortiz writes. This is a nightmare scenario for the Rangers, writes Mac Engel.
2. It's very likely the Indians will end their arbitration streak. They haven't gone to arbitration with anyone since 1991.
3. The White Sox set their player development staff.
4. The Phillies signed Chad Gaudin as well as Bobby Abreu.
AL West
• The Rangers have a couple of candidates for their closer role.
AL Central
• Lynn Henning considers the structure of the Detroit lineup.
• The Royals have picked their announcers.
• Joe Mauer is feeling good.
AL East
• The Orioles should be spending more money, writes Peter Schmuck.
NL East
• The Nationals could sign Grant Balfour.
• Ike Davis' dad has an opinion about how the Mets have handled his son's trade situation.
NL Central
• The Pirates rank No. 1.
• Mike Matheny got high praise from Tony La Russa.
NL West
• Matt Kemp is being advised to not come back too quickly.
Other stuff
• MLB will use metal detectors by 2015.
• The Rays' mascot has been nominated.
• This is from last summer, but worth watching again. Check out what Andrelton Simmons does here. I had seen it done when infielders are messing around and taking ground balls before games, but never actually in a game.
And today will be better than yesterday.
