QUARTERBACK vs. DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Four-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady, 39, has a 95.3 career passer rating in his six career Super Bowl appearances (164-for-247, 1,605 yards, 13 TDs, four INTs). And the New England Patriots’ star quarterback had one of his two best statistical Super Bowls two years ago in beating a Seattle Seahawks defense coordinated by Dan Quinn, now the Atlanta Falcons’ head coach. Brady completed 37-of-50 passes in a 28-24 win over Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX, for 328 yards, a career-high four TDs, two INTs and a passer rating of 101.1. Quinn’s Seahawks defenses were always intensely physical. His Falcons’ D in his second season on the sideline is showing some of that trademark edge, and they are fast, but they are also extremely young, leading the league in rookie snaps on a defensive unit with more than 3,000 in the 2016 season. Quinn combats the Falcons’ youth by letting their talent loose and constantly disguising coverages and defensive fronts to confuse the quarterback at the line of scrimmage. Brady has seen it all, though, and leads the NFL’s third-ranked offense (27.6 points per game) against a Falcons D that surrendered 25.4 per game in the regular season, 27th in the 32-team league.
OFFENSIVE LINE vs. DEFENSIVE FRONT
New England is not a completely veteran team. The Patriots start two second-year players and one rookie on their offensive line. But the line’s consistency has been remarkable. The Patriots have played 18 games this season including playoffs, and all five of Sunday’s starting offensive linemen have appeared in at least 17 of them. Tackles Nate Solder (28 years old, 6th year, 17 games played) and Marcus Cannon (28, 6th year, 17 games played) are veteran bookends anchoring the front. Then guards Shaq Mason (23, 2nd year, 18 games) and Joe Thuney (24, rookie, 18 games) flank center David Andrews (24, 2nd season, 18 games). This creates important familiarity and predictability for Brady operating the offense. Brady, though, has been sacked four times in the Patriots’ two playoff games, and the Falcons have registered four sacks in their two postseason victories, boasting a pass rush and speed that could give New England problems. Second-year Atlanta end Vic Beasley, 24, led the NFL with 15½ regular season sacks and is joined on a rotating front by veteran ends Dwight Freeney and Brooks Reed, and tackles Grady Jarrett, Jonathan Babineaux and Ra’Shede Hageman. The Falcons like to slash through, get off the ball quickly and mix up rushes disguised as blitzes with players dropping into coverage. With a young secondary behind them, getting to Brady with four rushers will be pivotal to Atlanta’s chances of winning this game.
RUNNING BACKS vs. LINEBACKERS
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and head coach Bill Belichick will look to keep Atlanta’s high-powered offense off the field by running the air out of the ball. This also may keep the score closer, or even keep the Patriots ahead, preventing Atlanta’s pass rushers from simply being able to tee off. Look for a similar game plan to their 27-16 Week 7 win in Pittsburgh over the Steelers. Pitt didn’t have QB Ben Roethlisberger, but New England ran LeGarrette Blount 24 times for 127 yards and two TDs, bludgeoning the Steelers off the field. Blount led the NFL with 18 rushing TDs this season. Dual-threat RB options James White and Dion Lewis make the Patriots even more difficult to predict and defend. Lewis, out the first half of the year recovering from an ACL tear, came back with a vengeance to score three TDs in the divisional round against Houston (13-yard catch, 98-yard kick return, 1-yard run), despite a costly special teams fumble. Suffice it to the Falcons’ pair of rookie linebackers Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell will have to limit the damage on both runs and passes out of the backfield. Jones led Atlanta with 108 regular season tackles, but Atlanta finished 17th against the run (104.5 allowed per game). New England was 7th in rushing (117 per game).
Not Released (NR)
Rob Ninkovich is a big part of the New England Patriots' defensive front. (JIM ROGASH/GETTY IMAGES)
WIDEOUTS AND TIGHT ENDS vs. SECONDARY
New England’s offense averaged 269.2 yards passing this season (4th in NFL). Atlanta’s defense surrendered an average of 266.7 yards per game (28th in NFL), and the Patriots can adjust their plan to any opponent. Last week in a 36-17 AFC Championship Game win over the Steelers, for example, the Patriots used a four-receiver, one-back set 19 times after having employed that set only 10 times all season, per ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski. The Patriots are excellent at getting open quickly and at gaining yards after the catch. Wideout Julian Edelman (30, 8th year) and tight end Martellus Bennett (29, 9th season) are Brady’s favorite and toughest targets. Bennett had 55 catches for 701 yards and seven TDs this season, helping the Patriots survive the absence of all-world tight end Rob Gronkowski (back surgery). But just when you think you have the Patriots figured out, Ramapo (N.J.) HS and Monmouth (N.J.) product Chris Hogan goes off for nine catches, 180 yards and two TDs against Pittsburgh. The job of Atlanta’s young secondary will be to limit the damage and the big play, since the Patriots will compete underneath. Safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, and corners Robert Alford, Brian Poole and Jalen Collins will have to avoid the Patriots’ rub routes, communicate and stay disciplined.
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QUARTERBACK vs.DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Matt Ryan led the Falcons in an MVP-level year to 540 points scored in the regular season, with the New Orleans Saints (469) a distant second. The former third-overall 2008 pick out of Boston College had a league-high 117.1 passer rating, 38 touchdowns and 7 INTs, and completed touchdown passes to an NFL-record 13 different receivers. At least seven Falcons caught three or more TDs. In the playoffs, Ryan has increased the torrid pace. In beating Seattle and Green Bay by a combined score of 80-41, Ryan has completed 53-of-75 passes (70.7%) for 730 yards, seven TDs and no picks. Ryan, 31, of course, is only 3-4 in his playoff career, playing in his first Super Bowl, and is shouldering the pressure of Atlanta never having won a Super Bowl, their one previous try coming 18 years ago. Four-time Super Bowl winner Bill Belichick will coordinate a secondary-heavy game plan with defensive backs jamming Atlanta’s receivers at the line out of nickel to disrupt timing, trying to force Ryan to hold the ball instead of making his typically efficient, quick decisions. New England’s top scoring defense (15.6 points allowed per game) is not flawless, though, and can’t totally shut down Ryan’s top-ranked offense (33.8).
Taylor Gabriel caught six touchdowns for the Atlanta Falcons this season.
Taylor Gabriel caught six touchdowns for the Atlanta Falcons this season. (SCOTT CUNNINGHAM/GETTY IMAGES)
OFFENSIVE LINE vs. DEFENSIVE FRONT
The Falcons are concerned about center Alex Mack (31, 8th year) and a left fibula injury that has hampered him the last two weeks, limiting practice time. Mack, signed to a five-year free agent contract away from the Cleveland Browns last offseason, is the leader of a mean, effective and veteran Atlanta front that has played the entire regular season and postseason together – even greater consistency than New England. Tackles Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder, and guards Chris Chester and Andy Levitre round out the starting five. If Mack is limited, Ben Garland is the backup center. Atlanta has allowed three sacks in its two playoff games. New England’s defense has registered three sacks in two games. The Patriots are not going to dominate this matchup, especially if Mack plays. They do have playmakers to unleash, though, from their disciplined defense. End Trey Flowers led the team with seven sacks in the regular season. Tackle Alan Branch had a D-line high 49 regular season tackles and is difficult to move at 6-6, 350 pounds. And the Patriots’ balanced front features plenty more solid contributors: ends Rob Ninkovich, Jabaal Sheard, tackle Malcom Brown, and end Chris Long, the son of Hall of Famer Howie Long.
RUNNING BACKS vs. LINEBACKERS
Falcons backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman totaled 2,522 rushing and receiving yards and 24 total touchdowns in the regular season. They were unstoppable on the NFL’s fifth-rated rushing attack (120.5 yards per). Behind a veteran offensive line, with a smart quarterback who keeps defenses honest, Freeman and Coleman both can score on the goal line. Like the Patriots’ game plan, Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan — the presumptive next head coach of the San Francisco 49ers — likely will continue to lean on this ground game strength, especially early, to take pressure off Ryan and keep New England’s offense off the field. The Patriots have the league’s fourth-best run defense, though, surrendering 88.6 rush yards per game. Linebackers Dont’a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, Kyle Van Noy and Shea McClellin all will factor. Belichick surprised the entire league by trading star linebacker Jamie Collins to Cleveland midseason, but the Pats have held steady without him. New England has former Browns LB Barkevious Mingo in reserve, as well.
Not Released (NR)
Vic Beasley Jr. can cause some serious trouble for Tom Brady. (KEVIN C. COX/GETTY IMAGES)
WIDEOUTS AND TIGHT ENDS vs. SECONDARY
The matchup of star Falcons receiver Julio Jones against Patriots corner Malcolm Butler is one of the most highly-anticipated in the game. Jones is a physical specimen at 6-3, 220 pounds who, when healthy, can take over any game. He crossed 1,400 yards receiving and six TDs for the third straight season in just 14 games played. He has been nursing a painful toe injury but is unconcerned for this game. Butler is the hero of Super Bowl XLIX who picked off Russell Wilson at the goal line to seal the Patriots’ most recent championship. He will be physical and locked in on Jones. The Patriots’ defensive game plan hinges on its entire secondary’s tackling, too, so leading regular season tackler Logan Ryan (25, 4th year, 92 tackles), fellow defensive back Eric Rowe and safeties Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon will be charged with stopping a sweeping variety of Falcons passing options. In addition to Jones, Freeman and Coleman, Ryan threw touchdowns this season to receivers Taylor Gabriel (six TDs), Mohamed Sanu (four), Justin Hardy (four) and Aldrick Robinson (two), and tight ends Austin Hooper (three) and Jacob Tamme (three), plus others. The Pats’ secondary is relentless, but as long as Jones is on the field, there is too much to cover.
