In the western world and China (major oil consumers), oil demand has returned to cruising speed. The pending recovery stretches of air travel and the easing of pandemic restrictions in emerging markets will likely only result in slower and gradual growth in demand going forward, which we expected would be outpaced by projected increases in shale production. and of the oil nations in the future.
Supplies are cyclically, not structurally, tight, partly due to oil policy. Drilling activity in the United States is expanding and the shale is returning to its former strength, albeit more slowly than in previous cycles.
We stick to our neutral view, we see the oil market at its peak, and we recognize that oil prices are trading in the bullish ranges of our projections. The bounce of the past few days reminds us of the mood-driven setbacks markets are prone to during those periods. The inflationary impact should be temporary.
