As the first 2016 nominating votes near, Donald Trump's strength as GOP frontrunner seems only to grow - nationally and in Iowa, where he's led in five of the last six state polls. But before the Trump freight train gets too far down the tracks, here's a word to the wise: Don't count out Ted Cruz, especially in the Hawkeye State.
The Texas senator has one big advantage over Trump, he occupies the social conservative lane in the GOP primary field, and that lane tends to over perform in Iowa.
Consider the 2008 and 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses. In both years, the social conservative candidate won the state - former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum - and both men got a big bump in the final tally compared to polls.
Consider the 2008 and 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses. In both years, the social conservative candidate won the state - former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum - and both men got a big bump in the final tally compared to polls.
In 2012, "very conservative" voters made up 47 percent of the Iowa Republican caucus electorate, according to entrance polls. The question is will the 2016 caucus turnout look like 2012 or will they look different.
Trump needs them to look different.
There are some points working against Cruz in the numbers.
Momentum is an obvious factor. Just a few weeks ago the Texas senator was leading in most Iowa polls. Now Trump tends to have the better numbers there.
And there is the possibility that the social conservative vote will be fragmented between Cruz and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who himself had a solid lead in Iowa back in November. Carson now sits at about 7 percent in the Iowa polls.
Overall, however, in a close race, don't discount the power of Cruz's social conservative bona fides and Caucus Day surge those candidates tend to get.
