As long as the technology continues to work flawlessly, it is
likely that bitcoin gains more and more popularity. The network
effects in play are extremely strong. For example, it will become
much easier to buy bitcoins. Today it is quite costly to acquire
bitcoins, at least that's my experience in Europe. There are
several online exchanges, which is good. Most them allow you
to do SEPA bank transfer, either directly to the exchange
(Kraken) or directly to the person you buy from (Local Bitcoins
and Bitcoin.de). The latter works surprisingly well, as the
exchange keeps the seller's bitcoins in an escrow until he
confirms the transfer. Unfortunately both have one percent fees,
paid for by the seller and/or buyer and a large spread. Kraken
has a 0.2 percent fee and a similar sized spread, which still is a
lot compared to regular currency and stock trading. Another
disadvantage is that SEPA transfers take days to confirm. Bank
transactions are reversible, while bitcoin transactions are not.
This makes the system vulnerable to fraud, which adds time and
costs to everyone.
