How much will 1 bitcoin worth 10 years from now?
15 ANSWERS
Tim Lea
Tim Lea, Blockchain Entrepreneur & Evangelist | Author of Down The Rabbit Hole |
Updated Jan 5
Please Note - none of the enclosed represents investment advice - please do you own research and seek professional advice as needed.
The price of bitcoin in 10 years is nearly impossible to predict but the future will be subject to 2 main source of drivers as I see it :
The Fundamentals :
1) the halving every four years (the last one happened in July ‘16) will reduce supply coming through two more times within 10 years.
2) Bitcoin (BTC) represents the digital gold standard - a safe haven when economic challenges are around - eg with Brexit it rose 15%, when DT got in it rose by 4.5% - with general economic uncertainty its role as a safe haven will become increasingly important. This will continue.
3) BTC represents the reserve currency of the cryptocurrency space - to get into the new ICO's (Initial Coin Offferings - the IPO's for cryptocurrencies) you typically need BTC to buy in. New crytpocurrencies will rise exponentially - some will be absolute rubbish - some will be amazing. BTC will be used to buy them.
4) With China playing an ever increasing role in the world economy, 80% are mined there and c 75% traded there - these will drive increased usage and awareness. China currently has currency restrictions and monies are being shipped out of the country through bitcoin.
5) Cryptocurrencies will become mainstream including BTC - although BTC will be a very minor cryptocurrency from a retail perspective - there will be a major retail coins created and used.
The Downside is that Quantum Computing will be rising in commercial usage, which means the BTC protocol will need to be strengthened. I chaired a recent blockchain conference here in Sydney, Australia and at a technical briefing it was postulated that there was a 1 in 14 chance bitcoin would be hacked with Quantum Computing.
With the SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm (at the very core of BTC’s design), the chances of anyone randomly guessing a correct private key combination is estimated to be one in 115 quattuorvigintillions – that's a 1 followed by 77 zeros! Now that sounds like a big number – and it is – there are more private key combinations than there are grains of sand on the planet.
Currently it would take around 0.65 billion, billion years to hack. With quantum computing this will dramatically change.
In the absence of a hack - I think we will see somewhere between $12,500 - $15,000 per bitcoin.
With a hack of the protocol - it will fall close to zero - until a massive patch is put in place, and gradualy rise from a zero base.
I think the protocol will evolve over time to overcome this risk but it is an important one worthy of consideration.
(In my recently launched book, Down The Rabbit Hole Amazon.com: Blockchain: Down The Rabbit Hole: (Discover The Power Of The Blockchain) eBook: Tim Lea: Kindle Store we look at many future aspects of crytpocurrencies but be aware it is hard enough to predict 3–6 months ahead let alone 10 years.
123.8k Views · 108 Upvotes
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OTHER ANSWERS
Ellery Davies
Ellery Davies, Co-chair: Cryptocurrency Standards Asso. Producer & Host: The Bitcoin Event
Updated Nov 7, 2016
On February 4, 2026, the value of 1 OPBU (Original Provable Bitcoin Unit, which is currently called 1 BTC) will have a US Dollar exchange rate of $16,824.13 (at UTC 1700 = Noon ET).*
The exchange rate will remain constant for the following 3 years, because at that time, the US will be in a conversion period during which the dollar is pegged to the free-floating value of Bitcoin (see note 2).
* Notes:
While $16.8K may not seem like a terribly big rise for Bitcoin, considering that it will be the official currency of 203 countries in 2026, it is equivalent to $1.7 million of today’s US dollars. That’s because of the treasury recall and conversion to new dollars on May 3rd 2022. Later in the decade, this will become known as “May Day”. The term will be almost as ubiquitous as 9/11.
Ironically, May Day will occur just weeks before the United States Treasury switches to Bitcoin. For the next 7 years, new dollars will be re-pegged to OPBU and Bitcoin will be treated as an asset-redemption guaranty, much in the way that dollars were pegged to gold prior to 1972.
In 2026, there is no more Eastern Standard Time. The US Congress will authorize a switch to UTC (also known as GMT or Internet Time) in the final days of 2024.
Ellery Davies is a frequent contributor to Quora. He is also co-chair of Cryptocurrency Standards Association and editor at A Wild Duck.
58.1k Views · 63 Upvotes
Brian M Lundberg
Brian M Lundberg, Information Technology & Services Professional, Founder of Incorporating Bitcoin
Answered Feb 4, 2016
Nobody can really give you a meaningful answer to this question. It could be nothing. It could be a fortune. My guess is that it'll be somewhere in between. The real question, in my opinion, is should you invest in Bitcoin? For the answer to that question read the article I wrote for my webpage, Incorporating Bitcoin.
Article 2 – Should I Invest In Bitcoin?
28.5k Views · 8 Upvotes
Yuri Zelikov
Yuri Zelikov, Bitcoin Enthusiast
Answered Nov 5, 2016
That’s impossible to tell.
I am pretty sure that in 10 years there will be totally new bitcoin use cases - that cannot be foreseen now. Just like it was impossible to predict Google based on understanding of what is WWW. But forget Google - how about Uber? This is second generation company based on nearly 100% adoption of internet.
Also, since Bitcoin is a currency - its value will depend on the purchasing power of other currencies.
So, I would make a prediction just based on assumptions that bitcoin will survive and will grow by about 30% per year - which should be about 7500$ in current prices.
Why 30%? That’s more or less is what expected from something “risky” as bitcoin. I put risky in quotes because to anyone who understands Bitcoin is is obvious to see that the risk is a lot smaller than it appears to be.
30k Views · 7 Upvotes · Answer requested by Adriana (JSA) Venter
Carl Anthony
Carl Anthony, Founder of www.cryptosi.com , Investor in Bitcoin and altcoins such as nxt
Answered Oct 22, 2016
Bitcoin will either be worth $50,000+ each or nothing at all in ten years from now. There Is a chance that QC will force bitcoin to hard fork or another currency to take the lead.
18.2k Views · 2 Upvotes
Joseph Pham
Joseph Pham, A blockchain enthusiast
Answered Sep 23, 2016
1 BTC now = 1 BTC in 10 years time
If you’re talking about it’s conversion rate… does it matter?
How much will the USD be worth?
The real question will be, what can you purchase with it… probably a lot more than what you would if you keep the equivalent fiat currency for 10 years, that’s a sure bet.
20.4k Views · 25 Upvotes
Christopher Dsouza
Christopher Dsouza, A believer in Bitcoin technologies. I love Bitcoins
Answered Jan 14
I guess you are asking about year 2027.
However, a year has 365 days (2027 won’t be a leap year).
There is no way, one can predict for all those 365 days.
2016 had 366 days and the value showed a complicated journey. Lowest = 365$ and largest = 900$. A rise of unbelievable 146.5713%
2017 marked a new era by helping Bitcoin touch 1000$.
May be this happened due to Venezuela President and India Prime Minister who opted for demonetization during year end.
2016 also witnessed Bitcoin halving which fueled price rise. Next halving will be in 2020 and subsequent will be in 2024, 2028 will witness another.
As on date, mining rewards are 12.5 Bitcoins and by 2028, it will be 1.5625 Bitcoins.
Maintenance fees = 0.4$ per 1 TH/s per day
You get today = 0.0007 BTC per day
With difficulty increase, the value likely to go down. Difficulty reduces the output by 10% per time. Let us assume, it was stable and gets down by 50% of what it was.
in 2028, you get = 0.00005 BTC per day.
Maintenance fees = 0.4$ + hardware costs ~= 0.5$ per day approx
We need to have 1 BTC > 10000$ for mining to work. If this condition is not met, Bitcoin will be doomed.
13.1k Views · 4 Upvotes · Answer requested by Arjun Agarwal
William Mark Tomlinson
William Mark Tomlinson, Involved and working in bitcoin since the day i discovered it in 2012
Answered Dec 10, 2016
Wow, 10 years? At the present (today) level of technology, human knowledge is doubling about every year. We are in the midst of a exponential explosion of technology, fueled by advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence, so in say 2 years, knowledge will be doubling every few months. Soon, knowledge will double every day.
To answer your question, in a few years bitcoin will most likely be worth several thousand dollars, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars.
My point is that so much could happen in ten years at this point in human evolution. We may be using a new type of currency that we cant even imagine now.
13k Views · 1 Upvote
Vikas Yadav
Vikas Yadav, Learning bitcoin and its amazing
Answered Nov 4, 2016
It will definitely worth more then what it is today. Reason being there is so much interest out there. Bitcoin is not currency it's not investment it's so many things. It is changing, adapting and profiting so many people today. And I am sure these people make sure it stays like this. Beside everything else it is mother to all cryptocurrencies. It has to be there.
10.9k Views · 3 Upvotes
Vishnu Talanki
Vishnu Talanki, In BTC we trust
Answered Dec 24, 2016
Nobody can give an exact conversion rate between BTC and USD, 10 years from now. Even predicting the range would be dangerous.
But 10 years from now, I can positively say that the Bitcoin ecosystem would have evolved largely, and be real threat to the current fiat based financial ecosystem. And mist importantly, the smallest unit into which Bitcoin is divided, the Satoshi (named after Bitcoin’s anonymous founder(s)), may become the base unit of BTC. The unit of Bitcoins will be so large that, it cannot be used for day to day trades. Satoshi will be the default and may be divided further.
10.7k Views · 4 Upvotes
Peter Smith
Peter Smith, CEO Klean Foundation (2012-present)
Answered Jan 3
I have no idea what one BTC will be worth in ten years.
But just for fun sake I calculated what a bitcoin could be worth if it would become the world standard (the only currency in existence)
The total amount of money on the world is estimated to be 75 trillion USD.
Since there will be only 20 million BTC every BTC would be worth
500 billion USD
(I’m really glad I am the owner of one bitcoin, haha)
9.7k Views · 8 Upvotes
Marco Emilio Giovanni Maltese
Marco Emilio Giovanni Maltese, My knowledge on the matter is all related to cryptocurrencies.
Answered Dec 23, 2016
Nobody can tell you this information, not even a reasonable value can be forecasted in this environment so far in the future.
There are too many variables involved: IT, finance, politics, geopolitics and more.
Anything can happen in 10 years.
However, I am writing an analysis (that will be published in the next few weeks) that puts Bitcoin value at year 2020 well past 10000 USD.
8.9k Views · 4 Upvotes · Answer requested by Timothy Alcock
Shrikanth Krishnamoorthy
Shrikanth Krishnamoorthy, Wonderful gift for a good investment
Answered Jan 3
*Bitcoin Price:*
Date-wise lowest Price of 1 bitcoin
(in $ and ₹)
* Jan 2009 to Jan 2010- Basically None.
* Feb 2010 to May 2010- $0.01, ₹0.5.
* July 2010- $0.08, ₹4.
* Feb 2011-April 2011- $1, ₹45.
* Dec 2011- $2, ₹108.
* Dec 2012- $13, ₹715,
* June-July 2013- $70-$110, ₹4200-₹6700,
* May 2015- $200-$300, ₹13000-₹20000,
* Nov 2015- $395, ₹26000,
* May-June 2016- $450, ₹30000,
* Aug 2016- $550, ₹37000.
* Sep 2016- $580, ₹39000
* Oct 2016- $650, ₹44000
* Nov 2016- $700, ₹52000
Prediction of bitcoin price in future:
Experts in BlockChain / Bitcoin technology say that Bitcoin price will hit as follows-
$1,000 (₹65,000) by the end of 2016,
$3,000 (₹2,00,000) by the end of 2017,
$10,000 USD (above ₹6,50,000) by the end of 2018,
$3,00,000, (above ₹2,00,00,000) by the end of 2020.
WhatsApp:+91 9545506265
5.7k Views · 9 Upvotes
Brandon Chai
Brandon Chai, Following God's Mission, Entrepreneur, Investor, Economist, Counselor, Author
Answered Tue
I believe that the fair value of one bitcoin is almost $500k. This is based on supply and demand. Now, bitcoin will either grow in value as an asset (or as a currency if it ever achieves that status) or it will fail due to lack of demand. As long as the demand keeps up however and the blockchain operates as it should, the fair value should rise.
Check out the free tutorial I made. The first 20 minutes or so explains the science behind bitcoin/cryptocurrency, how it compares to fiat currency, and how I came to the conclusion about the fair market value of a bitcoin.
2.3k Views · 2 Upvotes
Kayee Tong
Kayee Tong, Managing Partner at Cryptoexchange, Inc
Answered Dec 23, 2016
That is impossible to predict.
Maybe there will be more users and more demand.
Maybe a currency crisis will happen and bitcoins will rise in value.
However, if cheap quantum computing happens it may not be worth a whole lot once supply is flooded.
6.8k Views ·
