Can LA Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani, 30, reach the heights of his career?
FanGraphs, a U.S. baseball statistics site, said on June 6 (KST), “There's a lot to watch this month. Aaron Judge (Yankees) is having another historic season, Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals are making a run toward the postseason. But none of that compares to Shohei Ohtani's quest for 50 home runs and 50 doubles,” he said, highlighting Ohtani's historic challenge.
Ohtani, who underwent elbow surgery last year and is focusing exclusively on hitting this year, has been on a tear, batting .545 (158-for-545) with 44 home runs, 99 RBI, 111 runs scored, 46 doubles and a .988 OPS in 137 games. The sixth player in Major League Baseball history to join the 40-homer, 40-double club, Ohtani is on pace to become the first player in Major League Baseball history to reach 50 home runs and 50 doubles.
“No other player is in the 50-50 club,” FanGraphs emphasized, ”and he's the only one with a 44-44 record. No one else will be challenging him anytime soon, and it's unlikely that he'll be able to do it again. I don't think it's a coincidence that he did it in a non-pitching season,” said Fangraphs, noting that Ohtani's 50-home run-50-steal opportunity is a rare one.
FanGraphs used the same projection program it used when Jersey reached 60 homers in 2022 to estimate Ohtani's chances of reaching 50 homers and 50 doubles. “We started with a depth chart projection of Ohtani's remaining home runs,” says Fangraphs, ”which is calculated against a neutral opponent, so we included opponent and ballpark as variables. We then randomized the number of at-bats per game (four, five, six, and five being the most frequent). We randomly selected one game out of 10 home games to account for the fact that the Dodgers would give Ohtani at least one day of rest,” he explains. Based on these calculations, Ohtani has a 66.5% chance of hitting 50 homers in the rest of the season.
Of course, in order for Ohtani to hit 50 home runs and 50 doubles, he would also need to reach 50 stolen bases. FanGraphs says, “Ohtani is aiming for 50-50. To calculate this, we added a second variable for stolen bases. For stolen bases, I applied Ohtani's expected stolen base rate to the rest of his games without considering ballpark and opponent. One variable to consider is that Ohtani can't steal a base if he hits a home run, so we excluded the number of home runs in each game from the prediction model.” According to Fangraphs' calculations, Ohtani has a 55.6% chance of reaching 50 home runs and 50 doubles. His best chance of reaching 50 homers and 50 doubles is against Colorado on September 28 at Coors Field (6.3%).
Ohtani is on pace for 51 homers and 53 steals this season. FanGraphs says, “Ohtani has about a 56% chance of reaching both home run and stolen base totals. Our prediction is that Ohtani will finish with 50 homers and 51 steals. We think the home run total could be higher given the ballparks and opponents in the remaining games. The total probability won't go much above 50%, but it won't go much below either. He has a pretty good chance of reaching 50 doubles. I'm looking at a probability of almost 84%. That's significantly higher than the projections, but stolen bases are all about the will to steal, and I'm pretty confident that he has the will to steal 50 bases this year,” he said of Ohtani's 50-homer-50-steal chances.
“These odds can change quickly,” FanGraphs said, adding, ”If Ohtani hits a home run and steals a base tomorrow, his odds immediately jump to the mid-70s. This is not absolute gospel. It's not a perfect prediction of the future, it's just a simple simulation to give you an idea. But it's a pretty cool idea. Ohtani could have the power-speed season that has been talked about for a long time but no one has ever achieved. I want to know exactly when that time is, and it's my job to come up with an interesting answer.”
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