U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, making his first trip to India since taking on the position, arrived in New Delhi late Tuesday after a brief stop in Pakistan, en route from Afghanistan. Tillerson’s visit provides India and Washington an opportunity to assess first-hand what one another’s priorities are at a time of extraordinary unpredictability in regional and global politics.
U.S.'s preferred regional ally? Just days before his India visit, in a speech at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, Tillerson shared his vision of a crucial role for India in maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region, against the backdrop the “less responsible” rise of China, and terrorism in Pakistan. “In this period of uncertainty and somewhat angst, India needs a reliable partner on the world stage. I want to make this clear: with our shared values and vision for global stability, peace, and prosperity, the United States is that partner,” he said.
“We will not shrink from China’s challenges to the rules-based order and where China subverts the sovereignty of neighboring countries and disadvantages the U.S. and our friends,” he continued. “We expect Pakistan to take decisive action against terrorist groups based within their own borders that threaten their own people and the broader region.”
Chastising India’s two most tense neighbors, Tillerson emphasized the value of a strong India-U.S. relationship. “We’ll never have the same relationship with a non-democratic society that we can have with a major democracy…Our two countries can be the voice the world needs to be standing firm in defense of a rules-based order,” he said.
Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj shakes hand with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson before a meeting in New Delhi on October 25, 2017. (Photo credit: MONEY SHARMA/AFP/Getty Images)
India's response: enthusiasm or caution? Tillerson’s stance set a tone of optimism and vision of shared strategic convergence around his meetings in India with Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as well as for India-U.S. relations going forward.
Still, given some of the confusing and contrary foreign policy indications that have come from President Donald Trump and his administration over the last few months, India might be best off treading with caution.
As Suhasini Haider, Chief Diplomatic Affairs Editor at The Hindu, one of India’s most respected newspapers explained: “Despite Mr. Tillerson’s effusive words, it may be necessary to curb any enthusiasm until the U.S. policy compass itself is more settled, given that the policies of the Trump administration have thus far defied a clear reading, with policy, public statements, and Twitter bursts often contradicting each other.”
Mixed messages from top U.S. officials In fact, even while Tillerson has been reassuring India, Trump and some of his other officials have been courting its rivals.
Haider noted as an example of this confusion in messaging, the recent Boyle-Coleman hostage release incident, that led to a multitude of statements on the U.S.’s relationship with Pakistan.
Just a few days before the release, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis and chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford had stated that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has clear links to terror groups and suggested that the U.S.'s partnership with Pakistan was all but over.
U.S. President Donald Trump with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks to the media during a meeting with his cabinet at the White House on October 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
After the release, President Trump tweeted that he was starting to “develop a much better relationship with Pakistan and its leaders.” His Chief of Staff John Kelly then referred to Pakistan as a “great partner,” while Tillerson has maintained that Pakistan is critical to regional stability.
Meanwhile, the hostage Coleman herself refuted Pakistan’s claim that she and her family had been rescued while being transported from Afghanistan -- stating that they were in captivity in Pakistan, and had been for at least a year before their release -- a revelation which calls into question Trump’s words of praise for the country.
The Tillerson-Trump relationship This current volatility and incoherence in U.S. foreign policy is virtually unprecedented. Just a few months ago, it was widely reported that Tillerson called Trump a “moron,” and speculation abounded that his resignation was imminent. The Secretary of State denied the reports.
New Delhi must bare this is mind while evaluating Tillerson’s exuberant projections of an Indo-U.S. partnership. Tillerson may want to be friends, but what does Trump want?
