How difficult is it to recruit at a high level after a coaching change? The only new head coach in the 2018 recruiting cycle with a top-15 class is Oregon’s Mario Cristobal.
New coach recruiting successes
In the past 10 years, five first-year coaches have put together a top-seven class.
YEAR COACH SCHOOL RANK
2012 Urban Meyer OSU 6
2010 Jimbo Fisher FSU 6
2017 Ed Orgeron LSU 7
2016 Kirby Smart UGA 7
2010 Lane Kiffin USC 7
ESPN Stats & Information
Even with the early signing period, the challenge of recruiting after a coaching change is not a new phenomenon. In the past 10 years, only five first-year coaches were able to secure a class ranking of seventh or better.
Nine new head coaches currently have top-40 recruiting classes, with Cristobal and Oregon leading the way. Oregon has had some difficulty, though, including losing nine commitments in the month of December amid the speculation that there would be a coaching change. That number included four decommitments after Cristobal was announced as the permanent head coach on Dec. 8.
Losing commitments as part of a coaching change is often what makes it so difficult for first-year coaches. Tennessee’s class ranked as high as No. 5 before the season started but dipped to No. 22 when Jeremy Pruitt was hired on Dec. 7 and then plummeted to No. 40 the following week.
Top-40 Classes By First-Year Head Coaches In 2018
SCHOOL RANK
Oregon 14
Florida 18
Tennessee 20
Mississippi St. 23
Nebraska 28
Florida State 30
UCLA 33
Texas A&M 35
Ole Miss 36
ESPN Stats & Information
Pruitt and his staff have since raised the Vols' ranking to No. 20 overall, higher than when he took over, and have had a great deal of success recruiting the junior college ranks. They have landed three signees from the Junior College Top 50, which is tied for second-most by any FBS school and sits behind only fellow first-year coach Scott Frost at Nebraska.
Pruitt and Frost have another statistic in common: They, along with Matt Luke at Ole Miss, are the only new coaches to raise their class rankings since the day they were officially announced by their respective schools. Tennessee has moved up two spots from when Pruitt was hired, Nebraska is up eight spots since Frost was announced, and Ole Miss was outside the top-40 when Luke was announced.
Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M has seen the biggest drop, going from No. 13 down to 35 since he was named coach. Willie Taggart at Florida State has seen the second biggest drop after Fisher mulled leaving the Seminoles. Florida State lost seven commitments in the month of December in the wake of Fisher’s indecisiveness, and Taggart is now working to replace those losses.
Fisher was offered the job with the Aggies in the first place because Kevin Sumlin was fired. Sumlin resurfaced at Arizona and was the only head coach hired after the early signing period, which put him at a disadvantage. Both Arizona FBS schools went through coaching changes, with Arizona State bringing in Herm Edwards, and both schools are in jeopardy of getting shut out of the top-50 class rankings at the same time for the first time in five years.
The new coaches are now scrambling to close the recruiting cycle strong, with a little over a week left before signing day on Feb. 7. Based on history and the current numbers, it seems unlikely that any will make their way into the top 10, but that won’t stop them from trying.
